Market Analysis
Analyze prediction markets with price history, order books, token data, and top holder insights before placing trades.
Overview
Before putting money on an outcome, you want to understand what's happening in the market. Is the probability trending up or down? Is there enough liquidity to trade without slippage? Who are the biggest holders and which side are they on?
What you can do:
Check current prices, spreads, and last trade data for any outcome
View full order book depth to gauge liquidity
Pull price history to see how probability has shifted over time
Check prices across multiple outcomes in a single request
See detailed market analytics including volume and liquidity
View top holders to understand where the big money is positioned
Read community comments on events
Token Data
The quickest way to check the current state of any outcome. Returns the current price, bid/ask spread, and most recent trade in one shot.
"What's the price on BTC $150k Yes shares?"
Current price, spread, and last trade
"Check the price on the election Yes token"
Live pricing for that outcome
"What's the spread on this market?"
Bid/ask spread for the outcome
"When was the last trade on this market?"
Most recent execution
What You'll See
Price
Current market probability ($0 to $1)
Bid
Highest price someone is willing to buy at
Ask
Lowest price someone is willing to sell at
Spread
Difference between bid and ask
Last Trade
Most recent execution price, size, and time
Tight spread (e.g., $0.01-0.02) means good liquidity. Wide spread (e.g., $0.05+) means thin liquidity and you should use limit orders.
Order Book
See the full depth of bids and asks for any outcome token. This tells you how much liquidity is available at each price level.
"Show me the order book for BTC $150k Yes"
Full bid/ask depth
"Order book on the election market"
Bids and asks for the outcome
"How much liquidity is on this market?"
Order book depth
"What's the depth on No shares?"
Order book for the No side
Reading the Order Book
The order book shows you:
Bids: People willing to buy at these prices (support below current price)
Asks: People willing to sell at these prices (resistance above current price)
Size at each level: How many shares are available before price moves to the next level
If you see thin asks above the current price, a moderate buy could push the probability up quickly. If bids are thick below, there's strong support.
Price History
See how a market's probability has changed over time. Useful for understanding trends, identifying momentum, and timing entries.
"Show me the price history for BTC $150k"
Full price history for the market
"Daily price history on the election market"
Daily candles showing probability over time
"Hourly price data for this market"
Hourly granularity for short-term trends
"How has the probability changed over time?"
Price trend analysis
"What was this market trading at last week?"
Historical pricing
Available Intervals
Hourly
Short-term moves, day-of-event trading
Daily
Multi-day trends, swing trading
Default
Full history at automatic granularity
What to Look For
Trending up: Market is becoming more confident the outcome will happen
Trending down: Market is losing confidence
Sharp moves: News events that shifted probability quickly
Flat at extremes: Market is highly confident ($0.90+) or dismissive ($0.10-)
Volatile range: Market is uncertain, probability bouncing around
Batch Prices
Check prices on multiple outcomes at once. More efficient than checking one at a time, especially useful for multi-outcome events.
"Show me prices for all outcomes in this event"
Batch price check across all tokens
"Compare prices on all the candidates"
Side-by-side pricing for multi-outcome market
"What are the current probabilities across all outcomes?"
All outcome prices in one view
This is especially useful for events like elections or award shows where there are many outcomes and you want to compare them all at once.
Market Details
Get detailed analytics on a specific market including total volume traded, available liquidity, spread data, and more.
"Show me the details on this market"
Full analytics: volume, liquidity, spread
"How much volume has this market traded?"
Total volume traded
"What's the liquidity on the election market?"
Available depth and spread
"Market analytics for BTC $150k"
Comprehensive market stats
What You'll See
Volume
Total USD volume traded on this market
Liquidity
Available depth on the order book
Spread
Current bid/ask spread
Created
When the market was listed
Resolution
How and when the market resolves
Top Holders
See who holds the largest positions on a market. This tells you where the big money is and which side they're on.
"Who are the top holders on BTC $150k?"
Biggest positions on this market
"Show me the whales on the election market"
Largest holders and their sides
"Where's the smart money on this market?"
Top holders by position size
"Who's betting big on Yes?"
Largest Yes-side holders
What to Look For
Concentrated Yes holders: Big money thinks the outcome will happen
Concentrated No holders: Big money is skeptical
Even distribution: No clear conviction from large traders
Recent large entries: Smart money may have new information
Whale exits: Large holders selling could signal shifting sentiment
Top holder data is a signal, not a guarantee. Big players can be wrong too.
Comments
Read community discussion on events to understand the sentiment and reasoning behind market moves.
"Show comments on this event"
Community discussion and analysis
"What are people saying about the election market?"
Event commentary
"Any discussion on the BTC $150k event?"
Community sentiment
Analysis Workflows
Quick Check Before Trading
Deep Dive on a Market
Comparing Outcomes in Multi-Outcome Events
In multi-outcome events, all probabilities should roughly sum to 100%. If they don't, there may be an arbitrage opportunity.
Pro Tips
Always check the spread before market buying - Wide spreads eat into your returns. Use limit orders when the spread is over $0.03
Price history reveals catalysts - Sharp moves in probability usually correspond to real-world news events
Top holders are a leading indicator - Watch for large new positions entering a market
Volume confirms conviction - High volume at a price level means the market is confident at that probability
Check liquidity before sizing - Don't try to buy $500 of shares on a market with $50 of ask-side liquidity
Multi-outcome markets often misprice long shots - The tail outcomes frequently offer value
Last updated