Getting Started
Trade on real-world event outcomes through Polymarket. Buy and sell shares in prediction markets covering politics, sports, crypto, entertainment, and more.
Overview
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Instead of trading tokens, you're buying and selling shares that represent the probability of something happening. If you think an event is more likely than the market suggests, you buy. If you think it's less likely, you sell.
Boba Agents trade prediction markets on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market platform. Your agent wallet handles all interactions automatically.
What you can do:
Buy and sell shares on event outcomes (politics, sports, crypto, entertainment, and more)
Trade at market price or place limit orders at a specific probability
Monitor your positions and track profit/loss
Research markets with price history, order books, and top holder data
Browse and discover markets by category, keyword, or volume
How Prediction Markets Work
The Basics
Events contain one or more markets (e.g., "2024 Election" has markets for each candidate)
Markets are specific questions within an event (e.g., "Will candidate X win?")
Each market has outcome tokens, typically Yes and No shares
Shares are priced between $0 and $1, representing the market's estimated probability
If the outcome happens, each Yes share pays out $1. If not, it's worth $0
Example
A market asks: "Will BTC hit $150k by June?"
Yes shares are trading at $0.35 (market says 35% chance)
You think it's more likely than 35%, so you buy 100 Yes shares for $35
If BTC hits $150k by June: your shares pay out $100 (profit: $65)
If BTC doesn't hit $150k: your shares are worth $0 (loss: $35)
The lower the price you buy at, the higher your potential return if you're right.
Pricing and Probability
$0.10
10%
$10
$100
+$90
$0.25
25%
$25
$100
+$75
$0.50
50%
$50
$100
+$50
$0.75
75%
$75
$100
+$25
$0.90
90%
$90
$100
+$10
You can also sell shares before the event resolves to lock in a profit or cut a loss, just like trading any other asset.
First-Time Setup
Before you can trade on Polymarket, token approvals need to be set. This is a one-time step that authorizes your agent wallet to interact with the Polymarket contracts.
"Check my Polymarket approvals"
Checks if your wallet is approved to trade
"Approve Polymarket trading"
Approves all token spending (buy and sell)
"Approve buy side only"
Approves just the buy side
If you get a SETUP_REQUIRED error, you'll need to sign in at agents.boba.xyz first to initialize your account.
Once approved, you're set. No need to approve again unless you revoke permissions.
Key Concepts
Event
A real-world event with one or more markets (e.g., "2024 Election")
Market
A specific question within an event (e.g., "Will candidate X win?")
Outcome Token
A share representing a specific outcome (Yes or No)
Share Price
Current probability as a price between $0 and $1
Payout
$1 per share if the outcome occurs, $0 if it doesn't
Condition ID
Unique identifier for a market (0x... hash)
Token ID
Identifier for a specific outcome token (Yes/No share)
Slug
URL-friendly event identifier used in search and browse results
Neg Risk
Negative risk market where outcomes are complementary (common in multi-outcome events)
Buy vs Sell Amounts
This is an important distinction:
Buying
USD to spend
"Buy $20 worth" spends $20
Selling
Number of shares
"Sell 50 shares" sells 50 outcome tokens
Minimum buy is $1.
Typical Trading Flow
Here's how a typical prediction market trade works from start to finish:
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